Hvad er Hedging

Indholdet af InvestorsOrbit er udarbejdet med det formål at give en generel introduktion til finansielle produkter. InvestorsOrbit kan ikke erstatte finansiel rådgivning og kan hverken anses for at være et tilbud om at yde finansiel rådgivning eller et tilbud om nogen anden rådgivning eller service. Investorer opfordres til at kontakte egen investeringsrådgiver for individuel information om eventuel investering, skatteforhold med videre.

Hvorfor hedge?

De almindelige sving på aktiemarkedet kan forårsage stress for mange investorer, og de fleste rådgivere anbefaler at ignorere de daglige udsving. Det kan dog være svært at se væk, når tingene er ujævne, det er let at blive besat, når tingene begynder at glide i tider som disse og mange af os vil sandsynligvis ønske, at vi kunne forsikre vores investeringer mod nedture på samme måde, som vi kan forsikre vores hus og biler mod ulykker. Her indgår vi en aftale, hvor vi får kompensation, hvis huset skulle brænde ned eller, hvis vi kører galt.

Hvordan fungere det?

Denne type ”forsikring” findes egentlig også ved investeringer, men her går det under navnet ”hedging”. Hedging er når man forsøger at afdække sin mulighed for tab på investeringer ved at reducerer eller eliminerer visse risici, der kan have en negativ indflydelse på vores investering (aktie, obligation osv.) inklusive børskrak. Nogle formueforvaltere påstår endda at kunne tilbyde investeringer uden eksponering for en række risici, hvilket kan fremstå attraktivt for mange nybegyndere på aktiemarkedet, men også erfarne investorer i usikre tider. Her skal man dog passe på, da disse strategier har en pris og hedging ikke er en 1-til-1 forsikring, men nærmere en risikoreduktionsstrategi. En dårligt styret hedging kan ende med at sætte dig i en dårligere position end, hvis man ikke hedger.

Hedging er som tidligere nævnt en form for afdækning, hvilket vil sige, at når vi hedger, så forsøger vi at beskytte os mod bestemte risici, så vi kan prøve at kontrollere resultater. Kort sagt, så tager vi en mindre omkostning på nuværende tidspunkt / løbende, som skal forhindre et større problem i fremtiden. Når det kommer til investering, henvises der til at reducere en form for risiko eller eksponering i vores portefølje. Dette kan være risikoen for, at en bestemt aktie eller branche oplever større fald, risikoen for stramninger af pengepolitik, risikoen for, at inflationen er højere end forventet mv.

Dette kan man forsøge at modvirke ved at tilføje investeringer til vores portefølje, der bevæger sig i den modsatte retning af det, vi prøver at styre – vi prøver at opnå en negativ sammenhæng med vores nuværende eksponering, selvom vi teknisk set er på udkig efter, hvad der kaldes et negativt delta, hvilket kun er et mål for, hvor meget det ene aktiv bevæger sig, hver gang det andet ændres med en krone, så vil dette forsøge at ”sikre” os hvis en af de førnævnte begivenheder sker, og vores portefølje mister værdi. Det nye aktiv vil stige i værdi og således udligne tilbagegangen og give en vis beskyttelse. Som investorer kan man eksempelvis afdække sin eksponering ved at shorte den samme aktie; din short position ville stige i værdi, hvis din aktie falder i værdi. Dette er dog ikke optimalt, da såkaldte ”perfekte hedges” (hvis den ene stiger med 1 krone, så falder den anden tilsvarende med 1 krone), da man har undgået nogen ulempe, men samtidig, så forhindre man sig også i at opnå nogen gevinst. I stedet er det ofte værd at afdække specifikke risici eller eksponeringer, som ikke er ”perfekte hedges”, men i stedet beskytter mod visse tab, som man ikke ville have eksponering for. Dette kunne eksempelvis være her i Danmark, at man vil finde valutasikrede investeringsforening. En Dansk investeringsforening, som investerer i Amerikanske aktier, vil se et lavere afkast, hvis den amerikanske dollar svækkes, da dollaren vil blive konverteret til færre DKK. For at undgå dette, kan investeringsforenings eje visse investeringer, der vil stige i værdi, når dette sker, hvilket ville udligne tilbagegangen og giver investorer mulighed for at tjene et afkast svarende til det, som de Amerikanske aktier er steget. Andre risici, som en investor måske ønsker at afdække, inkluderer renterisiko, råvarerisiko, inflationsrisiko mv., hvor nogle af disse kan være modregnet ved hjælp af specifikke aktier eller ved køb af guld i tilfælde af inflationsrisiko.

Hvordan gør man?

Man kan teknisk set afdække sig mod stigende renter og ændrende valutakurser, som ved det tidligere eksempel, gennem mere traditionelle investeringer, men direkte sikringer opnås ofte ved hjælp af derivater. Vi har skrevet en masse om forskellige derivater som options og futures, hvilket i kan læse mere om her. Kort fortalt, så er derivat en kontrakt, hvorved du indgår en ”aftale” med en anden investor om, hvilken retning et underliggende aktiv eller faktor vil bevæge sig i fremtiden. Det underliggende aktiv kan være en råvare, en valuta, en aktie, en rentesats, selv et indeks, og for at afdække noget med et derivat skal du blot satse på det, som du har af eksponering.

I tilfældet med investeringsforeningen, ville vi kunne indgå det, som kaldes en swap-aftale, hvorved vi er enige om at betale en bestemt valutakurs i fremtiden, hvilket ville give os mulighed for til sidst at konvertere vores Amerikanske dollars til DKK ved nutidens kurs, hvilket ville fjerne vores eksponering for svingende valutakurser.

Derivater giver dig generelt mange muligheder for at gøre en masse interessante ting med din portefølje. Du kan eksempelvis afdække din markedsrisiko, mens du stadig opretholder eksponering for specifikke aktier, hvilket eksempelvis kan gøres ved at shorte ETF’er som S&P 500. Ved at shorte S&P 500, så eliminere du den indflydelse, som aktiemarkedets tilbagegang ville have på din portefølje. Dette lyder sandsynligvis, som en underlig, og ikke særlig praktisk taktik, men strategier som disse er faktisk ret almindelige blandt hedgefonde. Det ses ofte, at hedgefonde “går lang” på udvalgte aktiver, og samtidig shorter andre, med det formål at tjene et afkast uanset hvad markedet gør som helhed. Dette er dog mindre normalt for private / mindre investorer, men teoretisk set, så kan individuelle investorer udføre samme strategier ved køb af deres egne optioner, det skal dog nævnes, at short positioner ændre risikoafkastfunktionerne i porteføljen som helhed, da hedging minimere din risiko, men også dit afkastet.

Overvejelser

Hedging kan altså beskytte din portefølje som helhed, hvis det pågældende hedge er godt og aktivt valgt ud fra de risici, du gerne vil afdække. Hedging er dog ikke den gave, du måske forventer, det kan være og der er nogle ulemper, som du skal kunne forstå før du går videre og begynder at tilpasse din portefølje.

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