Risiko ved investering i obligationer

Indholdet af InvestorsOrbit er udarbejdet med det formål at give en generel introduktion til finansielle produkter. InvestorsOrbit kan ikke erstatte finansiel rådgivning og kan hverken anses for at være et tilbud om at yde finansiel rådgivning eller et tilbud om nogen anden rådgivning eller service. Investorer opfordres til at kontakte egen investeringsrådgiver for individuel information om eventuel investering, skatteforhold med videre.

Erfarne investorer ved at ​​diversificering er vigtigt. At have en blandet portefølje med forskellige aktivklasser er sandsynligvis den bedste måde at skabe ensartede afkast på – aktier, valutaer, derivater, råvarer og obligationer. Selvom obligationer muligvis ikke nødvendigvis giver det største afkast, betragtes de som en ret pålideligt investering. Det er fordi de er kendt for at give regelmæssig indkomst. Men de betragtes også som en stabil og sund måde at investere dine penge på, fordi – især dem, der tilbydes af regeringen – er garanteret. Det betyder ikke, at de ikke kommer med deres egne risici.

Som investor skal du være opmærksom på nogle af de faldgruber, der følger med at investere i obligationsmarkedet. Her er et kig på nogle af de mest almindelige risici.

Grundlæggende om obligationsinvestering

Obligationer er en form for gæld udstedt af et selskab eller en regering, der ønsker at skaffe noget likviditet. Når en enhed udsteder en obligation, beder den investoren om et lån. Så når du køber en obligation, låner du penge til obligationsudstederen. Til gengæld lover udstederen at tilbagebetale hovedbeløbet til dig inden en bestemt dato i mod betaling af renter med regelmæssige intervaller – normalt halvårligt.

Selvom obligationer betragtes som sikre investeringer, kommer de med deres egne risici.

Mens aktier handles på børser, handles obligationer over disk. Dette betyder, at du er nødt til at købe dem – især erhvervsobligationer – gennem en mægler. Husk, at du muligvis skal betale en præmie afhængigt af den mægler, du vælger. Hvis du ønsker at købe statsobligationer som, kan du gøre det direkte gennem regeringen. Du kan også investere i en obligationsfond, som er en gældsfond, der primært investerer i forskellige typer gæld, herunder virksomhedsobligationer, statslige og kommunale obligationer samt andre gældsinstrumenter.

Renterisiko

Den mest kendte risiko på obligationsmarkedet er renterisiko. Rentesatserne har et omvendt forhold til obligationspriserne. Så når du køber en obligation, forpligter du dig til at modtage en fast afkastrente (ROR) i en bestemt periode. Hvis markedsrenten stiger fra datoen for obligationens køb, falder dens kurs i overensstemmelse hermed. Obligationen handler derefter med en rabat for at afspejle det lavere afkast, som en investor vil give på obligationen.

Det omvendte forhold mellem markedsrenter og obligationskurser gælder også under faldende rentemiljøer. Den oprindeligt udstedte obligation ville sælge til en præmie over nominel værdi, fordi de kuponbetalinger, der er forbundet med denne obligation, ville være større end de kuponbetalinger, der tilbydes på nyligt udstedte obligationer. Dette forklarer forholdet mellem prisen på en obligation og markedsrenter simpelthen af ​​udbud og efterspørgsel efter et obligation i et skiftende rentemiljø.

Markedsrenter er en funktion af flere faktorer, herunder udbud og efterspørgsel efter penge i økonomien, inflationsraten, konjunktur og regeringens penge- og finanspolitikker.

Standardrisiko

Standardrisiko opstår, når obligationens udsteder ikke er i stand til at betale den kontraktlige rente eller hovedstol på obligationen rettidigt eller overhovedet. Kreditvurderingsservices som Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s og Fitch giver kreditvurderinger til obligationsudstedelser. Dette giver investorer en idé om, hvor sandsynligt det er, at der vil opstå en betalingsstandard. Hvis obligationsudstederen misligholder, mister investoren en del af eller hele deres oprindelige investering plus enhver rente, de måtte have optjent.

For eksempel har de fleste regeringer meget høje kreditvurderinger (AAA). De har midlerne til at betale deres gæld ved at hæve skat eller udskrive, hvilket gør medføre den høje standard. Imidlertid har små nye virksomheder nogle af de værste kreditter – BB og lavere – og er mere tilbøjelige til at misligholde deres obligationsbetalinger. I disse tilfælde vil obligationsejere sandsynligvis miste alle eller de fleste af deres investeringer.

Inflationsrisiko

Denne risiko refererer til situationer, hvor kursstigningen i økonomien forværrer afkastet i forbindelse med obligationen. Dette har den største effekt på faste obligationer, der har en fast rente fra starten.

For eksempel, hvis en investor køber en fast obligation på 5%, og inflationen stiger til 10% om året, vil obligationsejeren miste penge på investeringen, fordi købekraften er bliver reduceret. Rentesatserne på obligationer eller såkaldte ”floaters” med variabel rente justeres med jævne mellemrum for at matche inflationen, hvilket begrænser investorernes eksponering for inflationsrisiko.

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